Why Las Vegas New Homes Sales Will Rebound in 2012

My prediction is that this year there will be 15% more new home sales this year than last. According to the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association, 3,894 new homes were sold in 2011 which was the lowest amount in more than three decades. Some experts predict 4,000 new homes will be sold in 2012. And I say it will be 4,475 units. Why?

  1. Lack of resale inventory. Did the media mislead you? That’s right, lack of resale inventory. See http://www.houseofvegas.com/?p=815.The scarce “used home” availability will shift some buyers into buying a new home because of the competition on resale properties. These buyers started in the resale market but are fatigued from being outbid by investors and owner-occupied buyers.
  2. Short sales are nothing but short. Buyers who have experienced failed short sale purchases (happens often) and long lag times will give up and look to new homes.
  3. REOS have been picked clean. I mean this as a double entendre. First, all of the good REOS have been purchase. And second, the ones that remain have been stripped or need significant work. When buyers consider the repair costs they start to ask, if I’m going to pay this money for a used home, why not pay a bit more and buy a new home built specifically for you?
  4. New home builders are offering significant incentives to buyers such as 10′s of thousands in upgrades, closing costs allowances, or super-low interest rates. Ask me about these if you are interested.

I strongly believe that these four items and especially the lack of good resale inventory will cause the new home sales to out-perform even what the home builders are currently forecasting. Do you think I’m right? Am I completely wrong? What do you think? Let’s see…

New and Existing Homes, Foreclosures, 2013, Las Vegas

New and Existing Home Prices, Foreclosures – December 2013

February, 2014. According to National Title of Nevada, 534 New Homes were sold in December, 2013 at a Median Sales Price of $300,469. Sales of existing homes was 3,453 units at a median sales price of only $160,000. Expect the price gap between new and existing to narrow as this wide of a gap is […]

Las Vegas Population and Job Growth Up.

Las Vegas Population and Economic Growth

3/27/2014. According to the Las Vegas research firm Applied Analysis, Clark County is one of the fasting growing areas of the country. Further, employment is up as is consumer confidence. TweetPin It

Eblana Explority Well Rig Near Tonopah

Nevada’s Underground Oil Potentially Bigger Than Texas’

Many may not know that Nevada historically was quite a productive oil-producing state. Now there is news that there may be more oil in the center of the state than all of Texas. If you think Williston, North Dakota is a boom town, just wait to see what the Hot Creek Valley in Nevada will […]

Take Two Adding Jobs in Las Vegas

More High-tech Jobs Coming to Las Vegas. Take-Two Interactive.

Las Vegas is starting to look more like ‘Silicon Desert.” Most people know that downtown Las Vegas is home to Zappos.com and a burgeoning start-up/incubator tech culture. Today it was announced that Take-Two Interactive, makers of the video game hit Grand Theft Auto and many other titles are negotiating to lease an office in Las […]

Clark County Schools

Voting: Clark County Question #2

Clark County School District Capital Projects Funding Question I’ve seen some confusion on how this tax is calculated; On what basis it is calculated. I did some research and then confirmed that the math works by examining 420 properties. Firstly, in the voter guide, the “new” home description is a misnomer. It is “a” home, […]

Las Vegas Housing Economics

Appraisals Coming in Low? Pendulum Swings But Fails to Hit Some People in the Head

In last Friday’s article at “The Real Deal,” http://therealdeal.com/blog/2012/06/22/are-too-low-appraisals-preventing-some-markets-from-recovering/, they ask if appraisers are “scared” to value homes at higher prices in hot markets like Las Vegas. My answer is “yes” in many cases. They are not reflecting the market conditions. In Las Vegas, most reasonable properties under $200k have multiple offers with many contract prices above […]